Showing posts with label Irish dependency ratio. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Irish dependency ratio. Show all posts

Sunday, August 31, 2014

31/8/2014: Irish Dependency Ratio Rises in H1 2014


Previous posts covering QNHS release for Q2 2014 provided analysis of



In the present post, a quick summary of changes in overall dependency ratio. I define a ratio of those at work to total population. This is imprecise as we only have estimated population figures for the year, and year coverage is for 12 months through April each year. The data is directionally-indicative more than actual levels, so many caveats here. However it does show where this economy is heading in terms of how many people support via work the rest of the population.

Here are the trends, set against 5 year averages:


In H1 2014, the ratio of those at work to total population declined to 0.3997 from 0.4026 in H2 2013 and up on 0.3927 in H2 2013. This is less material than the fact that current average (from H1 2013 through H1 2014) is running at 0.3983 - the lowest for any 5 year period on record.

In simple terms, there are fewer people supporting through work larger number of those who do not work for any reason.

Thursday, June 7, 2012

7/6/2012: QNHS Q1 2012: First results

The latest QNHS results for Q1 2012 are out. Headline readings from CSO release:

  • There was an annual decrease in employment of 1.0% or 18,100 in the year to the first quarter of 2012, bringing total employment to 1,786,100. 
  • This compares with an annual decrease in employment of 0.8% in the previous quarter and a decrease of 2.9% in the year to Q1 2011.
  • On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment fell by 7,300 (-0.4%) in the quarter. This follows on from a seasonally adjusted increase in employment of 11,100 (+0.6%) in Q4 2011.
  • Unemployment increased by 13,300 (+4.5%) in the year to Q1 2012. This brings the total number of persons unemployed to 309,000 with male unemployment increasing by 3,600 (+1.8%) to 205,400 and female unemployment increasing by 9,800 (+10.4%) to 103,600.
  • The long-term unemployment rate increased from 7.8% to 8.9% over the year to Q1 2012. Long-term unemployment accounted for 60.6% of total unemployment in Q1 2012 compared with 55.1% a year earlier and 40.9% in the first quarter of 2010.
  • The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased from 14.5% to 14.8% over the quarter.
  • The total number of persons in the labour force in the first quarter of 2012 was 2,095,100, representing a decrease of 4,800 (-0.2%) over the year. This compares with an annual labour force decrease of 32,800 (-1.5%) in Q1 2011.
We have the above data to offset the incessant chatter from the Government about stabilizing unemployment and jobs creation. The success of the Irish State unemployment activation programmes and training schemes is clearly some time off, despite more than a year of current policies and the build-up of similar activation efforts under the previous Government.

Now to more detailed analysis. This post will focus on top-of-the-line numbers and subsequent posts will look at sectoral breakdown and other details.

Labor force participation has fallen to 2,107,800 in Q1 2012, down from 2,113,400 in Q4 2011 and down on the peak of 2,251,400 in Q1 2008. The annual rate of decline of 0.3% in Q1 2012 is shallower than Q1 2010-2011 rate of -1.6% and Q1 2009-2010 rate of -2.6%. Which is good news, kind of.


Numbers of those not in the labor force rose to 1,390,500 in Q1 2012 up from 1,389,600 in Q4 2011 - a shallow hike. Year on year, the rise was 0.2%, much more mild than 1.75% hike in Q1 2010-2011 and 2.94% rise in Q1 2009-2010. Again, sort of good news.

Numbers in employment fell to 1,800,300 in Q1 2012 from 1,807,600 in Q4 2011. (See breakdown of full v part time employment below). Again, the anual rate of change trend is toward shallower declines. In Q1 2011-2012 the rate of decline was 1.0%, against -2.85% in Q1 2010-2011 and -5.46% in Q1 2009-2010. At the peak, there were 2,140,600 in employment, now the number is down 340,300.


Overall number of unemployed rose from 307,300 in Q4 2011 to 312,800 in Q1 2012. At the lowest point in recent history we had 94,200 unemployed. Unemployed counts rose 4.6% y/y in Q1 2012, compared to growth of 8.13% in Q1 2011 and 24.54% in Q1 2010.


Both full-time and part-time unemployment levels shrunk in Q1 2012. Full-time employment is down to 1,383,500 in Q1 2012 from 1,385,000 in Q4 2011, while part-time employment is down to 417,900 in Q1 2012 from 422,300 in Q4 2011. Y/y full-time employment is down 0.6% compared to Q1 2011 y/y decline of 4.47% and Q1 2010 y/y drop of 7.25%. Part-time employment is down 2.1% in Q1 2012, against a rise of 3.24% in Q1 2011 and a rise of 1.847% in Q1 2010.


Unemployment rate has now reached its crisis-period peak of 14.8, more than erasing the slight moderation achieved in Q3 2011 to Q4 2011 (drop from 14.6% to 14.5%). A year ago, just as the new Government came to power, the unemployment rate stood at 14.1%. Of course, the previous Government has presided over much more dramatic rise in unemployment rates. In addition, economic conditions that the current Government has inherited clearly do not warrant much of optimism, especially in such sticky series as unemployment. Thus, the current numbers are not the matter for a blame game.


Participation rate has remained flat at 60.3% in Q1 2012, same as in Q4 2011, but is down from 60.4% in Q1 2011. At the peak we had participation rate of 64.1%.

The above has meant that our dependency ratios worsened in Q1 2012. Ratio of those employed to the rest of the working age population has fallen from 65.35% in Q4 2011 to 65.22% in Q1 2012. In Q1 2011 this ratio stood at 65.80% and in Q1 2010 it was 70.90%. At the beginning of the crisis the ratio was 98.80%. In other words, the proportion of those working in the economy is declining.

Summary of headline stats:


Wednesday, February 2, 2011

2/02/2011: Dependency ratios

Looking over LR data earlier tonight, I decided to update the charts for dependency ratios, based on a combination of LR and QNHS. Here are some charts.

From the top: in Q1 1998 there were 1,619.8 thousand persons aged 15 years or older in Ireland that were not in full-time employment and 1,237.4 thousand of the same age category persons who were in full time employment - a ratio of 1.3. By Q1 2000 this ratio fell to 1.1. The same was attained in Q1 2005. This ratio declined to 1.0 in Q4 2005 and stayed there until Q4 2008. Then in Q 12009 the ratio rose to 1.3. As of Q3 2010, there were 2,075.9 thousand 15 year old and over persons who were not in full time employment in Ireland. Against this, there were 1,436.8 thousand persons of the same age category in full time employment. The implied ratio there for has rise to 1.4. Chart below illustrates:
Not scared yet? Ok, another shot:
Oh, and another angle:
The above shows just how bad is the dependency ratio getting in Ireland during the current crisis.

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Economics 02/06/2010: Regional variations in labour markets

While working on a project relating to economic policies in Ireland, I was compiling data on regional variations in various series. Here is a set of interesting graphs detailing the labour force differences across the main regions.

Each data set reflects the latest available QNHS data through Q3 2009 and each is presented in two charts - full history and a snapshot of the crisis dynamics since 2007.

First the unemployment rates
Notice that since time memorial Dublin runs at or below average in terms of unemployment rates. This pattern is no persistently broken, with Dublin unemployment performing remarkably better in this crisis. Also note that the top tier of unemployment black spots in the country also remains relatively resilient over time. This has to put to test any assertion that state policies to deal with longer term unemployment are working.

Take a look at a closer time frame, relating to the current crisis:
You hear a lot about the MNCs and exporting companies holding our line from a total collapse of economy. Well, say the same for Dublin, South-West and Mid-East. Of course, the latter is largely, hmmm, Greater Dublin, really.

The chart above also hints at something more disturbing here. Recall that early rounds of layoffs impacted predominantly construction sector and associated services. Well, look at Midlands and South-East. It does appear that the two regions were experiencing significantly faster rates of jobs losses in the early parts of the crisis than any other region.

One wonders what is the exact distribution of jobs in the country relative to places of residence. This, of course, is a long running question that CSO is refusing to ask on QNHS. What trouble can there be, folks, in asking a recipient to state where they physically work. It would tell us a lot about people's commuting patterns (helping to better plan transport systems) and about where people are actually employed (helping us to better plan associated business services provisions). But no - CSO staunchly refuses to ask. Why? Because the state is most likely unwilling to admit that the National Spatial Strategy and the IDA/EI mandates to produce jobs for regions is failing. Ireland has natural hubs of jobs and jobs creation potential - Greater Dublin area, Cork area, Galway-Limerick area. This is where jobs concentrate and where companies want to be. So how about a challenge to CSO - ask an important question, will you? Have some gumption...

Back to data: labour force participation rates next
What the charts above show is the precipitous decline in labour force participation rates since the peak of H2 2007. And these declines are worrisome, for we normally tend to ascribe the destructive effects of the economic crises to unemployment, forgetting about those who leave the work force altogether. Well - take a look at charts above.

Another disturbing realization on the foot of the above charts is that regions with lowest participation rates also tend to be regions with higher unemployment. This is important because it signals that even in a small country like Ireland, mobility between residential location and work location is still restricted (by distance, lack of proper roads, transport shortages etc). It also suggests that in the long run, areas with higher unemployment tend to become traps for non-participation in labour force. The vicious spiral of being jobless in an area with no jobs creation leads to becoming disillusioned and dropping out of the work force for good.

And this implies higher rates of overall dependency. Remember - these are numbers for able bodied adults. So if we take the rate of unemployed and add to it the rate of those who are not in the labour force, we get a proportion of population that needs someone else to work for them to sustain themselves. Now, a caveat here - of course some of those who are not in labour force are gainfully engaged in work at homes - non-market activities that are productive and include, among other very important ones, like carrying for the elderly or ill, raising children etc. These, however, are not the majority in these numbers. Nor are they likely to be distributed predominantly into higher dependency areas of the country. So conclusions presented below stand:
Predictably, the lowest dependency ratios are in high work regions: Mid-East and Dublin. And although these ratios rose in these two regions through the crisis, they are still well below the national average and leagues below the dependency ratios for the likes of Border and South-East regions. Here's a closer look:
Of course, what these trends mean is that throughout the entire series duration (from 1998) Dublin and Mid-East have acted as a subsidy generating regions for the rest of the country. Someone had to pay for the higher dependency rates in regions that are above country average (since the welfare rates are not varied geographically).